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Estimation of Flood Warning Times for Flood Safety Management Downstream of Dams
Journal: Journal of River Engineering
Issue: Journal of River Engineering (Volume: 1, Issue: 2)
Author: Saqib Ehsan , Walter Marx , Silke Wieprecht
Keywords : Flood travel times , Flood safety management , Dam failure flooding , Jhelum river valley , Flood warning times

Floods have always been a threat for people and property due to the extent of possible damages. The flooding could be catastrophic in case of possible dam failure and its impacts on downstream areas could also be very significant. Proper estimation of flood warning times plays a vital role in flood safety management of areas downstream of the dams. This research focuses on the realistic and precise estimation of flood warning times for the downstream areas in case of possible dam failure. As Case study, the Jhelum river valley, 329 km long, downstream of Mangla dam in Pakistan has been considered. Various scenarios of an erosion based overtopping failure have been considered and one dimensional flood routing for Jhelum river valley downstream of the dam has been carried out with unsteady flow conditions by using MIKE 11. By analyzing the results of different flood routing scenarios, flood travel times for downstream areas have been computed and further the warning times have also been estimated with respect to different categories of warning initiation. This study emphasizes the importance of the estimation of flood warning times for downstream areas in case of dam failure and utilization of the estimated warning times for enhancement in warning efficiency, emergency evacuation techniques and other flood safety measures.

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Mahdi Moharrampour
Prof. Abdolkarim Behnia