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Export Potential of Iran's Agricultural Sub Sectors (An Experience of Modern Statistical Methods)
Journal: ICP Business, Economics and Finance
Issue: ICP Business, Economics and Finance (Volume: 5, Issue: 1)
Author: Reza Moghaddasi , Zeynab Omidvar
Keywords : Hodrick Prescott's filter , Agriculture. , Christiano Fitzgerald's filter , Export potential , Baxter King's filter

The present paper aimed to estimate the exports potential value of agricultural subsectors in Iran and compare them with the actual value. The research period was since 2010 until 2016 on a monthly basis. Hodrick-Prescott, Baxter King and Christiano Fitzgerald filters was used in this study to estimate the potential export value in the agricultural subsectors including crops, horticulture, Fisheries, food products, livestock, forest and rangelands. The potential values calculated by the Baxter King filter were greatly consistent with the actual amount that is not compatible with the economic theory. The potential value estimated by Christiano Fitzgerald filter,which depends on the duration of the period under study, was lower than actual value at the beginning and the end of the period and higher than the actual value in the middle of the period under review; however, the most logical filter, to explain the potential amount and display it's differences with the actual value, was Hodrick Prescott filter that displayed potential value with little fluctuations and generally, represented lower amount of actual export than the potential amount. Finally, it was recommended to pay more attention to equip the infrastructure and funding for potential capacity of different subsectors.

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Dr. Arezoo Aghaei Chadegani